FPUBLIC AFFAIRS - American Embassy
Sylvie VACHERET
Tel: 01 43 12 29 28
E Mail: vacheretsr@state.gov
Voir aussi Crise 2007-2008
et Points de vue américains sur la crise economique et financière
U.S. ECO ONLINE
A SELECTION OF DOCUMENTS RECENTLY PUBLISHED ON THE WEB
No 100 – January 2008
ECONOMIC GROWTH
Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2008 to 2018
Congressional Budget Office – January 23, 2008 - 199 pages
http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/89xx/doc8917/01-23-2008_BudgetOutlook.pdf
“The state of the economy is particularly uncertain at the moment. The pace of economic growth slowed in 2007, and there are strong indications that it will slacken further in 2008. In CBO's view, the ongoing problems in the housing and financial markets and the high price of oil will curb spending by households and businesses this year and trim the growth of GDP. Although recent data suggest that the probability of a recession in 2008 has increased, CBO does not expect the slowdown in economic growth to be large enough to register as a recession.”
David Madland, John Irons
Responsible Investment: A Budget and Fiscal Policy Plan for Progressive Growth
Center for American Progress – Progressive Growth Program – January 9, 2008 – 38 pages
http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2008/01/pdf/responsible_investment.pdf
“The economic transformation envisioned in the Progressive Growth series of papers, requires a progressive economic program that is fiscally responsible as well as pro-growth. Our latest paper details how the next administration and Congress can do that. Our plan will not only help ensure future U.S. economic prosperity but also is affordable and can be paid for in a way that supports the progressive values of work, fairness, and simplicity. How? By accelerating America’s transformation to a low-carbon economy, by spurring innovation to sustain productivity growth and job creation, by rebuilding the ladder of opportunity by restoring economic security and mobility, and by creating a virtuous circle of rising economic fortunes for a growing global middle class.”
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
John Robertson & Ellis Tallman
A Look Ahead: Housing, Energy Squeezed in '08
The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – EconSouth – Vol. 9, no. 4 – Fourth Quarter 2007
http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=1CB1552F-5056-9F12-1294F7523CA4B68C&method=display_body
“In 2008 the U.S. economy will face several challenges, including risks that have affected the economy for nearly two years. With the continuing contraction in housing market activity, higher energy prices, and generally tighter lending standards by banks, the outlook centers on the extent to which consumer and business spending will weaken. Many forecasters expect that the U.S. economy will experience subdued economic growth in 2008, somewhere in the range of 2 to 2.5 percent as measured by real gross domestic product (GDP). This forecast is a notable step down from the growth observed on average in 2006 and 2007 and carries with it considerable downside risks.”
Economic Outlook: Economic Growth to Slow on Credit Market Uncertainty and Housing Contraction, Pick Up Pace in Second Half
Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) - December 10, 2007 – 6 pages
http://www.sifma.org/research/pdf/economic-outlook1207.pdf
“Members of SIFMA expect the pace of the U.S. economy to slow in the first half of 2008 but pick up in the latter part of the year. Based on a survey of SIFMA members conducted during the week of November 27-December 3, the respondents also project the Gross Domestic Product to grow at 2.1 percent next year. Housing sector deterioration, tight financing conditions, an accommodative monetary policy response to the credit market environment, a projected decline in the price of oil, and the combined effect of a lower dollar and global economic expansion provide the backdrop for the economic outlook.”
Robert Bixby, Robert Kerrey, Peter Peterson & Warren Rudman,
America's Economy - Headed for Crisis: Realistic Approaches Are Essential
Brookings – Opportunity ’08 – December 2007 – 18 pages
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Projects/Opportunity08/PB_Budget_Rudman.pdf
“Deficits do matter. Projections show risks to the economy, an extra "debt tax" on every taxpayer, and highlight the weakened ability of the federal government to invest in the future or respond to unforeseen emergencies. Cutting fraud, waste, and abuse, curbing earmarks, raising taxes on the very wealthy, or streamlining the staffing of the federal government is simply not enough to solve the problem.”
Rea Hederman Jr. & James Sherk
The Economy's Year-End Fizz
The Heritage Foundation - WebMemo #1766 - January 7, 2008
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/wm1766.cfm
“On January 4, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that 18,000 jobs were created in the month of December; private employment actually contracted by 13,000 jobs. The unemployment rate increased from 4.7 percent to 5 percent, a larger-than-expected increase and the highest rate in two years. The December employment report is of particular interest due to a softening economy. Today's report provides evidence that the economy has slowed and that the chances of a recession have increased. While the economy will probably continue to expand in the next year, the weaknesses in construction, the financial sector, and manufacturing could cause the economy to tilt into a short decline.”
What Should the Federal Government Do to Avoid a Recession
US Senate – Joint Economic Committee - Hearings – January 16, 2008
http://www.jec.senate.gov/Hearings/01.16.08%20Avoid%20a%20Recession.htm
“The economy has been broken for some time, and the economic growth we have seen has not reached the vast majority of families. This will probably be the first business cycle where, at the end of the recovery (last full year being 2007), the typical family will have lower incomes than they did at the start of the downturn (2000, the last full year of recovery). Fixing this disconnect between growth and the pay and incomes of the vast majority of Americans requires a policy agenda on health care, retirement, labor policy, trade policy, and work/family policy that is much more substantial than what we will be talking about today. The focus today should be on offsetting the rising unemployment and the corresponding income losses that families will shortly face.”
The Near-Term Outlook for the U.S. Economy
US House of Representatives – House Budget Committee - January 17, 2008 – 8 pages
http://www.house.gov/budget_democrats/hearings/Bernanke%20Testimony.pdf
“Since late last summer, financial markets in the United States and in a number of other industrialized countries have been under considerable strain. Heightened investor concerns about the credit quality of mortgages, especially subprime mortgages with adjustable interest rates, triggered the financial turmoil. As these problems multiplied, money center banks and other large financial institutions, which in many cases had served as sponsors of these financial products, came under increasing pressure to take the assets of the off-balance-sheet vehicles onto their own balance sheets. Banks have also evidently become more restrictive in their lending to firms and households. More-expensive and less-available credit seems likely to impose a measure of restraint on economic growth.”
Lee Hudson Teslik
Recession, Beyond the Economy
Council on Foreign Relations – Daily Analysis - January 22, 2008
http://www.cfr.org/publication/15287/recession_beyond_the_economy.html?breadcrumb=%2F
“When Goldman Sachs recently revised its forecast for the U.S. economy, predicting a recession in 2008, the shockwaves weren’t confined to boardrooms or even living rooms. The economic ramifications of a recession are much-discussed, myriad, and well-known. Less certain are the geopolitical and geoeconomic effects a U.S. downturn might bring, particularly at a time that finds other powers on the rise, the price of vital commodities spiking, and U.S. prestige in question.”
More than Half of Democrats and Independents Feel the Economy Will Get Worse in 2008
Harris Interactive – The Harris Poll #3 – January 7, 2008
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/harris_poll/index.asp?PID=855
“With all the recent negative economic reports from financial services firms and from major retailers about lower holiday spending, it is not too surprising that Americans are not confident about the 2008 economic outlook. When asked to compare to last year, only one-in five (21%) indicated that they feel more secure financially now, and only a minority (15%) believe the economy will improve in the coming year. In fact, 38 percent of Americans say they feel less secure about their financial situation compared to last year and a plurality (45%) believe the economy will get worse in the coming year.”
FISCAL STIMULUS
Ruy Teixeira
Fact Sheet on the Bipartisan Economic Growth Agreement
White House – Fact Sheets - January 24, 2008
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2008/01/20080124-4.html
“President Bush announced his Administration reached a bipartisan agreement with House leadership on an economic growth package, and he encouraged Congress to deliver a bill to his desk as soon as possible to bolster the economy this year. The President's advisors and many outside experts expect that our economy will continue to grow over the coming year, but at a slower rate than we have enjoyed for the past few years – and there is the risk of a downturn. The agreement reached today meets the criteria the President set forward last week to provide an effective, robust, and temporary set of incentives to protect the health of our economy and encourage job creation. If enacted in a timely manner, it is expected to help create more than half a million jobs by the end of 2008.”
Alice Rivlin
The Need for a Stimulus Package Now
Brookings – January 29, 2008
http://www.brookings.edu/testimony/2008/0129_fiscalstimulus_rivlin.aspx?emc=lm&m=212393&l=70&v=252043
“The economy clearly slowed sharply in the fourth quarter of 2007 after growing strongly in the third, and the current quarter is beginning with signs of weakness as well. Unemployment rose in December—although 5 percent is still a pretty good number—and employment increases stagnated. Retail sales have fallen off, and the housing sector continues to plunge. Although some indicators, notably exports, are positive, it is clear that the economy is in a period of slow growth, possibly headed for a recession. Some economists are predicting a long or deep recession. The gloomiest forecasts are coming from economists associated with major financial institutions. The truth is: we simply do not know.”
Strengthening America’s Economy: Stimulus that Makes Sense
US Senate – Committee on Finance – January 22 & 24 2008
http://www.senate.gov/~finance/sitepages/hearing012208.htm (part 1)
http://www.senate.gov/~finance/sitepages/hearing012408.htm (part 2)
“Strong indications suggest that economic growth is slowing and will remain sluggish for much of 2008. The risk of recession is elevated, however, and some respected economists believe that the probability of a recession has now risen to 50 percent or greater. Discretionary fiscal policy stimulus (that is, legislative action aimed at providing stimulus) may not be necessary to avoid an outright recession, if most current forecasts are correct. Nonetheless, policymakers may choose to proceed with a stimulus package to bolster a weak economy and as insurance against the elevated risk of a recession. Some economists advocating a stimulus also believe that a recession, if it occurs, could prove to be unexpectedly deep; a fiscal stimulus would help reduce the severity of a recession, should one occur.”
Tom Finnigan
RSC Stimulus Proposal Would Be a Move in the Right Direction
Heritage Foundation - WebMemo #1779 – January 25, 2008
http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/wm1779.cfm
“The Republican Study Committee (RSC) has introduced the Economic Growth Act of 2008 (H.R. 5109). The legislation, which aims to stimulate the economy by lowering the tax and regulatory burden on businesses, takes steps in the right direction. The legislation offers a solid alternative to proposals—such as tax rebates and federalizing mortgage contracts—that would fail to stimulate, or do serious harm to, the economy. Congress should focus on creating long-term, pro-growth economic policies in the areas of taxes, spending, and regulation.”
Alan Berube
After the Stimulus
Brookings – Opinions – January 29, 2008
http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2008/0129_economic_stimulus_berube.aspx?emc=lm&m=212393&l=74&v=252043
“With the nation’s economy on the brink of cardiac arrest last week, the “emergency stimulus” doctors in Washington reached for the defibrillator to jolt consumers and businesses back to life. But even if we manage to stabilize the ailing economy, should we really discharge the patient without a longer-term health plan?”
