EMPLOYMENT – LABOR MARKET – PRODUCTIVITY

Edward Knotek

How Useful is Okun’s Law?

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City - Economic Review – Fourth Quarter – 2007 – 31 pages

http://www.kansascityfed.org/PUBLICAT/ECONREV/PDF/4q07Knotek.pdf

“From the beginning of 2003 through the first quarter of 2006, real gross domestic product in the United States grew at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent. As expected, unemployment during the period fell. Over the course of the next year, average growth slowed to less than half its earlier rate--but unemployment continued to drift downward. This situation presented a puzzle for policymakers and economists, who expected the unemployment rate to increase as the economy slowed, as the Okun’s Law states.”

Riccardo DiCecio, Kristie Engemann, Michael Owyang & Christopher Wheeler

Changing Trends in the Labor Force: A Survey

The Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis – Research papers – January 2008 –16 pages

http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/08/01/DiCecio.pdf

“One of the primary indicators of the state of the U.S. labor market is the labor force participation rate (LFPR). It is measured each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) as the fraction of the civilian, non-institutional population 16 years or older who are either working or actively seeking work. Although the LFPR is constantly changing over the business cycle, the most noticeable feature is its dramatic increase over the post-World War II period. Between 1948 and 2006, the U.S. LFPR rose by more than 7 percentage points, with the majority of the rise taking place between the early 1960s and 2000. What accounts for the changes in the LFPR in the United States over the past several decades?”

James Sherk & Patrick Tyrrell

Unemployment Insurance Does Not Stimulate the Economy

Heritage Foundation - WebMemo #1777 - January 18, 2008 – 4 pages

http://www.heritage.org/Research/Economy/upload/wm_1777.pdf

“With the economy weakening, some analysts have argued for increasing unemployment insurance (UI) benefits from 26 weeks to 39 weeks to stimulate economic growth. Few studies support the idea that extending unemployment benefits significantly stimulates the economy. In addition, extending UI benefits would do the following: (1) Encourage unemployed workers to stay out of work longer to collect benefits; (2) Encourage employers to wait longer to rehire laid-off workers; (3) Do relatively little to increase consumption. To stimulate the economy and create jobs, Congress should increase the incentives for businesses to invest.”

Jared Bernstein, James Lin & Lawrence Mishel

The Characteristics of Offshorable Jobs

Economic Policy Institute - November 14, 2007 – 12 pages

http://www.epi.org/datazone/characteristics_of_offshorable_jobs.pdf

“Offshoring is the practice of sending work from the U.S. to workers abroad. Computer programming in India or garments once produced domestically but now made abroad are examples of offshoring. This report presents data and findings in spreadsheet format. It concludes by showing that 18 to 22 percent of today’s jobs could be offshored.”

Bradford Jensen & Lori Kletzer

“Fear” and Offshoring: The Scope and Potential Impact of Imports and Exports of Services

Peterson Institute – Publications – January 2008 – 19 pages

http://www.petersoninstitute.org/publications/pb/pb08-1.pdf

“While the uproar over offshoring has largely subsided since the 2004 presidential campaign, there continues to be concern and anxiety regarding the potential impact of offshoring in general and services offshoring in particular. With the economy softening and potentially headed for a recession in the midst of the current presidential campaign, worries about jobs and globalization seem likely to reemerge. The purpose of this policy brief is to provide estimates of the scope and potential impact of imports and exports of services.”